캠브리지 대학 전문가는 큰 사건이, 한 세기의 과정을 결정지을 것이라고 예측한다.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1287271/World-plunged-crisis-2014-Cambridge-expert-predicts-Doomsday.html


캠브리지 대학 교수에 의하면, '운명의 날'은 2014년에 일어날 것이다 - 그리고 그것은 21세기가 폭력과 가난으로 가득찰지 또는 평화와 번영으로 가득찰 지를 결정할 것이라고 한다.

지난 500년에 걸쳐서, 각 세기가 시작되는 시점에서 국제적인 대규모 '큰 사건'들이 있어왔다고 그는 주장한다.
각 세기의 2번째 10년의 중반에 발생한 사건들은 전쟁, 종교적 갈등 그리고 평화를 가져오는 것들이었다.

영화 '2012년' 는 그 해에 전세계적인 대 재난을 이야기하고 있다. 그러나 Boyle 교수는 거대한 전세계적 사건은 2014년이 될 것이라고 주장한다.

- 1517년에 마틴 루터 킹은 종교개혁과 프로테스탄티즘을 촉발시켰다.
- 1618년에 서유럽에 30년동안의 전쟁과 종교적 갈등이 일어났다. 이 갈등은 1715년, 하노버 왕가가 들어서면서 종결되었다. 그들은 대영제국과 아일랜드, 그리고 독일의 하노버를 통치하였다.
- 1815년에 계몽된 비엔나 회의가 일어나서, 나폴레옹을 패배시키고 유럽에 한 세기의 안정을 가져다 주었다.
- 1914년에, 제1차 세계대전이 발발하였고, 이 전 세계적 갈등은 수백만명의 사망자를 야기했고 21세기의 국제적 부조화를 가져왔다.


캠브리지 대학의 Nicholas Boyle 교수는 전세계적 경제적 위기가 다음의 '큰 사건'을 촉발할 것이라고 지적한다.

그는 경제적 영향력이 쇠퇴하고 있음에도 불구하고 절대적 군사력을 가지고 있는 미국이, 다음 90년의 과정과 성격을 결정짓는 열쇠가 될 것이라고 말한다.

Nicholas Boyle 교수는 2014년에 전 세계적 사건으로 중대한 변화가 일어날 것이라고 주장한다.

또다른 요수는세대들의 결과이다. '미래는 새로운 세기에 살거나, 새로운 세기의 기억을 가지고 있는 아이들에 의해서 결정될 것다.'고 그는 말한다.

그는 평화는 세계가 각 국가들의 시대는 끝났으며 세계정부 시스템이 효과적이라는 것을 인지할 때만이 가능하다고 경고한다.

Boyle 교수의 책 ;2014- 우리는 어떻게 다음의 세계적 위기에서 생존할 것인가 (2014 - How to survive
the next world crisis)는 Continuum Books에 출판되었다.

'World could be plunged into crisis in 2014': Cambridge expert predicts 'a great event' will determine course of the century

By Daily Mail Reporter
Last updated at 12:10 PM on 17th June 2010

A 'Doomsday' moment will take place in 2014 - and will determine whether the 21st century is full of violence and poverty or will be peaceful and prosperous, according to a Cambridge University

professor.

In the last 500 years there has been a cataclysmic 'Great Event' of international significance at the start of each century, he claims.

Occurring in the middle of the second decade of each century, they include events which sparked wars, religious conflict and brought peace.

Great Event: The movie 2012 (pictured) suggested there would be massive world disaster that year. But Professor Boyle claims it will be 2014 when there is a huge world event

• In 1517 Martin Luther nailed his theses to the door of Wittenburg church, sparking the Reformation of the church and rise of Protestantism.
• 1618 marked the start of the 30 Years War and decades of religious conflict in Western Europe
• That conflict ended with the establishment of the Hanoverians in 1715. They ruled over Great Britain and Ireland, and Hanover (in Germany).
• The enlightened Congress of Vienna took place in 1815, following the defeat of Napoleon, and heralded a century of relative stability across Europe.
• In 1914 the First World War broke out, a catastrophic conflict that would claim millions of lives and set the tone for international discord throughout the 21st century.
  


Cataclysmic events: The 'Doomsday' of the last century was in 1914, when the First World War began

Professor Nicholas Boyle of Cambridge University, who carried out the research, has pinpointed the global financial crisis as the trigger for the next 'Great Event'.

And he claims the U.S., with its waning economic influence but unrivalled military power, holds the key to determining the course and character of the next 90 years

Professor Boyle said: 'The character of a century becomes very apparent in that second decade, so why should ours be any different? 



Thesis: Professor Nicholas Boyle claims 2014 will mark a significant change in world events

'Partly the timing has to do with the way we divide our understanding of human life and human history.


'If a century is going to have a character it is going to become apparent by the time it is approaching 20 years old, the same is true of human beings.


'Another factor is the sequence of generations. By about two decades in the generation that was really dominant in the last phase of the previous century has had its day.

'The future is beginning to be defined by their children who will only have lived in or have memories of the new century.'

The professor, who lectures in German and German history, said the recent economic collapse set the wheels in motion of a wider breakdown in international relations.

The U.S., he said, will become the key player in a series of make-or-break decisions and either condemn us to a century of violence and poverty, or usher in a new age of global co-operation.

But he cautioned that peace is only possible if the world realises that an age of individual nation states is over and an effective system of global governance is introduced.

Flashpoints of world politics such as climate change and the rise of China and India, as well as the global credit crisis, will need international co-operation to be resolved, he said.



By 1815, Napoleon Bonaparte had been defeated and a period of relative stability followed

'2007 started off colossal economic change which has still got a long way to go,' he said.


'Big economic changes lead to big political changes and we have not seen them yet.


'My thesis is that we have got another crisis to come, and you can already see that in the questions being raised over the debts of nations rather than private credit debts.

'One thing that has not changed is the colossus that is the American military which means the USA has to be a key player in any major politicial shift.


'We are going to see disparity in America's perception of its declining economic significance and continuing military and political absolute power.


'Everything, in the end, may depend on whether America can react more imaginatively to that decline than Britain was able to do in the years before 1914.

'It is a profoundly hopeful sign that we begin the 21st century with very many more international and intergovernmental organisations than we had at the start of the 20th.'

Professor Boyle: 'The only conceivably peaceful route to that goal is through a continuation of the pax Americana.

'But both the world's understanding of America, and America's understanding of itself, will have to change fundamentally for that goal to be achieved.'

Professor Boyle's book 2014 - How to survive the next world crisis is published today by Continuum Books.



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